Key Terms
Incorrect or incomplete information
Bad data leads to bad conclusions; even knowing data is incomplete introduces uncertainty.
Information overload
Too much data makes it hard to see the big picture; contradictory data creates confusion; excessive information- gatheri
Stress
Abnormal stress (personal or professional) leads to decisions that are out of character; reduces objectivity and discipl
Time pressure
Feeling rushed degrades judgment; this is true even when sufficient time actually exists. The perception of time scarcit
Confirmation Bias
Seeking out or preferring information that confirms your existing views. Ignoring or discounting contradicting informati
Framing Bias
Being influenced by how a situation or problem is presented. Positive framing is more influential than negative framing.
Hindsight Bias
The tendency to believe, after an outcome is known, that you would have predicted it all along. We poorly recall how unc
Example
An uncertainty node with two branches might be labeled 0.5 and 0.5. A three-branch node might be labeled 0.6, 0.3, and 0
Anchoring Bias
Fixating on initial information and failing to sufficiently adjust when new information arrives. Example: Jurors asked t
Halo Effect
Giving someone's opinion extra credibility in one area because they are impressive in a different area. No logical basis
Overconfidence Bias
Trusting personal judgment (usually intuition) over expert opinion or contradicting data. More likely to occur outside o
Status-Quo Bias
Preference for avoiding change; favoring decisions that maintain the current state. Neglects evidence and ideas that sup
Pro-Innovation Bias
The opposite of status-quo bias. Preferring new ideas simply because they are new, without objective evidence that they
Satisficing
Settling for a good-enough solution under limited information. Status-quo bias: preferring decisions that avoid change.
Optimizing
Collecting as much data as possible to find the best possible choice.